Forecast: cloudy, 67% chance of God

Hey, all you atheists out there — looks like you’ve only got about a 33% chance of being right. According to Dr. Stephen Unwin, there is a 67% chance that God exists.

Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation.

The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the evidence both for and against the notion of a higher being.

(via Neil Gaiman)

Yesterday’s Trek, today’s tech

In the 23rd century universe of “Star Trek,” people talked to each other using wireless personal communicators, had easy access to a vast database of information and spent hours gazing at a big wall-mounted video screen.

On 21st century Earth, that future is already here.

Fun little article, though somehow I’m very _un_surprised that so many of today’s electronics are designed by geeks that grew up on Star Trek. Seems only natural to me.

Now all we need is warp drive and the transporter…

(via Jacqueline)

I should probably be worried about this…

Kirsten pointed out the Book Quiz — another of the many online personality tests, this one purporting to link your psyche to a novel.

My results?

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blockquote>Vladimir Nabokov's 'Lolita'

You’re Lolita!

by Vladimir Nabokov

Considered by most to be depraved and immoral, you are obsessed with sex. What really tantalizes you is that which deviates from societal standards in every way, though you admit that this probably isn’t the best and you’re not sure what causes this desire. Nonetheless, you’ve done some pretty nefarious things in your life, and probably gotten caught for them. The names have been changed, but the problems are real. Please stay away from children.

Take the Book Quiz at the Blue Pyramid.

Oh my.

[Ahem.]

The movie alphabet quiz

This is really, really evil — identify the movies whose logos were used to create this alphabet.

So far, I’ve got A, B, D, G, H, I, K, L, M, N, P, Q, R, V, W, Y, and Z (mouse over each letter to see the answer).

I’m missing C, E, F, J, O, S, T, U, and X, and it’s driving me up the wall…some of them look so familiar.

(via D, who deserves a special circle of hell for subjecting me to this) ;)

I’m 100 percent British!

I'm 100 percent British!

Jolly good, wot! Anyone for tennis? That’ll be ten ponies, guv. You’re the epitome of everything that is english. Yey :) Hoist that Union Jack!

How British are you?
This quiz was made by alanna

Incidentally, I think I’m going to have to come up with some special prize for the first ‘net quiz I run across that gives you “Put this in your blog!” code that is actually well-written, doesn’t use unnecessary tables, properly opens and closes paragraph tags, uses proper break tags (<br />, not <br>), and so on. I always have to re-write the tag soup they give me before I can post the results here…

May 7th is No Pants Day

I don’t think I’ll be able to get away with it at work, but afterwards… :-D

You Should Wear Nothing!

NOTHING?!?!?! There are no limits or boundaries for you. No pants, no clothes, whatever. But, hey, if you’re going to get arrested, this is definitely the way to go.

Find out which No Pants Day outfit YOU should wear!

No Pants Day is May 7th, 2004. To find out more about No Pants Day, visit
www.NoPantsDay.com

(via Dad)

iTunes: “Schiff Ahoi” by Totenmond from the album Cold Hands Seduction IV (3:55).

Safety != comfort

A few days ago, I started seeing links to Malcolm Gladwell’s excellent look at “SUV culture” and the disconnects between perceived safety and real safety. It’s an incredible read, especially if you might have ever looked longingly at the latest behemoth on the road.

Bradsher brilliantly captures the mixture of bafflement and contempt that many auto executives feel toward the customers who buy their S.U.V.s. Fred J. Schaafsma, a top engineer for General Motors, says, “Sport-utility owners tend to be more like ‘I wonder how people view me,’ and are more willing to trade off flexibility or functionality to get that.” According to Bradsher, internal industry market research concluded that S.U.V.s tend to be bought by people who are insecure, vain, self-centered, and self-absorbed, who are frequently nervous about their marriages, and who lack confidence in their driving skills. Ford’s S.U.V. designers took their cues from seeing “fashionably dressed women wearing hiking boots or even work boots while walking through expensive malls.”

[…]

The truth, underneath all the rationalizations, seemed to be that S.U.V. buyers thought of big, heavy vehicles as safe: they found comfort in being surrounded by so much rubber and steel. To the engineers, of course, that didn’t make any sense, either: if consumers really wanted something that was big and heavy and comforting, they ought to buy minivans, since minivans, with their unit-body construction, do much better in accidents than S.U.V.s…. But this desire for safety wasn’t a rational calculation. It was a feeling.

In linking to the story yesterday, Scoble mentioned the statistical ridiculousness of being comfortable driving, yet being afraid to fly.

I’ve given up in trying to correct the stupidity of my friends (stupidity in this context is the lack of ability to apply any risk analysis to their lives). I have never met one of my brother-in-laws, for instance. Why? He lives in London, England. He won’t fly. He’s afraid of flying. But he drives. Let’s see, you’re 1000 times more likely to die in a car than in a plane accident. If he’s afraid of flying he should absolutely be freaked out about driving. But he drives a bus.

The thing is, this is something that I can identify with — far better than I’d like, in fact.

I used to love flying when I was younger. My family travelled a lot, and heading to the airport and getting on a plane meant I was going somewhere new, off to see new things and explore more of the world. Nothing could have been cooler. I’d be completely jazzed from the moment we hit the airport until we landed, gazing out the window seat to watch the ground below or the movement of the wings, feeling myself sink into my seat as we rose into the air — it was great.

Then I turned 18, and — funny, this — my parents suddenly stopped paying for me to travel. I spent the next ten years in and around Anchorage, not getting on an airplane again until I flew to Fairbanks one February to DJ a dance at UAF. Suddenly, I was a little nervous — nothing major, but I was a lot more conscious of the fact that an airplane is a giant metal tube, hurtling through the air thousands of feet above the ground. It wasn’t enough to really get to me, but it was definitely there. Still, nothing major.

Until December of 2001.

I had the single worst flight I’ve ever been on on the way up. Most of it went fine, but then about half an hour before we touched down, we hit the worst turbulence I’ve ever gone through, plus multiple air pockets where the airplane would suddenly drop for a couple seconds before it caught lift again. I’ve got to say, that was the most all-out terrified I’ve ever been — one drop I might have made it through with just being a little frightened, but when it kept happening over and over, I really started to freak out. I was completely convinced that we were going down — especially when after it started happening, and when the captain came on the intercom, rather than telling us something about how we’d hit some turbulence and would we please all sit down (which, while it would be stating the obvious, would have been somewhat reassuring), all he said was, “Would the flight crew please sit down and buckle in now.” Not encouraging.

Ever since then, I’ve been terrified of flying. The sane, calm, logical part of my brain knew that it was flat-out stupid. Statistically, flying is the single safest mode of travel we have. Thousands of flights a day go all over the world without any problems. The chances of being on a flight that suddenly goes seriously bad are so slim to be almost laughable.

But it didn’t matter.

All I could think of when I got on an airplane was the feeling of that flight suddenly losing all lift, and dropping out of the sky. My head was filled with visions of this or that piece breaking, the pilots not being able to regain control, and I’d end up trapped in a giant metal coffin coming screaming out of the sky at hundreds of miles an hour. Ever bit of turbulence, every random sound the airplane made as it flew, and I’d be white-knuckling the armrests, closing my eyes, and doing my best to find whatever mental “happy place” I could until it was all over. My last couple flights, I took to dosing myself with Sominex just before takeoff — it wouldn’t knock me out, but it did at least calm me enough that I wasn’t completely freaking out.

I think that part of what triggered the extreme reaction, both during the flight that initially scared me so much and during subsequent flights, was the feeling of lack of control. When I’m in a car (especially when driving), I know that I’m in control of the vehicle, and if anything goes wrong (from mechanical problems with the car I’m driving to bad road conditions to other idiot drivers on the road), it’s up to me to make sure that I’ll make it out alive. If I survive (and even better, if I survive unscathed), wonderful — and if I don’t, then at least I can be sure that I did everything I could.

In an airplane, though, I have no control. I’m just a passenger, and an even more powerless passenger than I would be in a car or bus. Driving, even if I’m not the one behind the wheel, than if the driver suddenly conked out, than I know that I have the ability to take the wheel if need be (this may not be very realistic, but it could happen). Flying, however, there’s absolutely nothing I can do if something goes wrong. No matter what the situation is, all I could do is sit in my seat, ride it out, and hope and pray that we land safely. That feeling of powerlessness, of lack of control over my world, definitely plays a part in why I was so scared.

Not to mention the silly little fact that if a car suddenly loses power, you can generally coast to the side of the road, come to a stop, and get out to troubleshoot. If an airplane loses power, you’ve got however long it takes to fall 13,000 feet before you can kiss your ass goodbye. That definitely doesn’t help when a frightened brain is concocting worst-case scenarios.

Thankfully, that fear of flying seems to be lessening. My flights down to Memphis for my brother’s wedding weren’t nearly as nervewracking as other flights have been, and I didn’t even need the Sominex for the return leg of the trip. I won’t say I’m entirely over the fear — there were definitely some nervous moments — but it wasn’t anywhere near as strong as it had been in the recent past.

I’m actually somewhat curious (though not very, really) if dad was using some of his psychology techniques to subject me to “immersion therapy”, as I went from a 737 (or some other “normal” sized airliner) for the Seattle to Cincinnati flight, to a little 50-seater twin-engine for the Cincinnati to Memphis flight…and then going back from Memphis to Cincinnati ended up on a 32-seater! Considering that each plane was getting successively smaller, I was really starting to wonder if a Piper Cub could make the Cincinnati to Seattle leg of the flight. Thankfully, though, I was back on a 737 (or some other “normal” sized airliner) for that leg.

Anyway, all this boils down to is that just because you know you are safe in a given vehicle or situation doesn’t mean that you’re going to be comfortable. I knew my fear of flying was ridiculous. Unfortunately, I spent about three years powerless to do anything about it.

Of course, all this doesn’t keep me from sharing in the belief that SUVs are ridiculously stupid, overpowered, underprotected, gas-guzzling, ugly, pointless vehicles that should be banned for anyone not living down at least fifteen miles of unpaved road. ;)

Biggest breakup of the year

Ben who?

J-Lo who?

Get your priorities straight, folks. That gossip mill is so yesterday.

I’m talking a breakup of real importance here — one that will be inspiring headlines in all the rags, sending the talk-show hosts into a flurry, and prompting a whole slew of rabid fan sites lamenting the passing of such a long-adored perfect couple.

I’m talking Ken and Barbie.

After 43 years as one of the world’s prettiest pairs, the perfect plastic couple is breaking up. The couple’s “business manager,” Russell Arons, vice president of marketing at Mattel, said that Barbie and Ken “feel it’s time to spend some quality time — apart.”

“Like other celebrity couples, their Hollywood romance has come to an end,” said Arons, who quickly added that the duo “will remain friends.”

[…]

Arons hinted Wednesday that the separation may be partially due to Ken’s reluctance to getting married. All those bridal Barbie dolls in toy chests around the globe are really just examples of Barbie’s wishful thinking, she explained.

The single most mindblowing piece of information in that article, though…

…CNN revealed Barbie’s full maiden name. I guess they figured that since she’s still without a ring, there’s not much point in hiding it anymore: Barbie Millicent Roberts (and incidentally, take a look at the cover photo for that book — why, I do think that Barbie has had a facelift at some point! What is this world coming to, that even Barbie is getting plastic surgery…um…wait…).

Personally, though, I’ve got to give full props to Ken.

Not many guys could duck the altar and still keep their girlfriend for a full forty-plus years.

(via Prairie)

iTunes: “Resurrection Hex (Giganto)” by Love and Rockets from the album Resurrection Hex (1998, 5:53).

Help the CIA find those pesky WMDs!

How wonderfully thoughtful — the CIA has posted a handy little online form so that people can submit tips on WMD locations (and other Iraq-related intel).

If you have information relating to Iraq which you believe might be of interest to the U.S. Government, please contact us through our secure online form. We will carefully protect all information you provide, including your identity.

To help us confirm and act quickly on your information, you must provide your full name, nationality, occupation and contact information including phone number. This allows the U. S. Government to grant rewards for valuable information. We will maintain strict confidentiality.

On the one hand, it’s definitely an interesting experiment. On the other hand, you can’t really help but get the feeling that they’re really stretching on this one.

(via BoingBoing)

iTunes: “Everything’s Cool (Safe as Milk)” by Pop Will Eat Itself from the album Two Fingers My Friends! (1995, 10:55).

Like, I guess I’ll just have to, like, get used to it now

(Sigh) I suppose it was inevitable…

From the Fort Wayne Journal: Like, totally

Two decades after the song “Valley Girl” popularized it, a fresh effort is afoot to stamp out this linguistic quirk. The generation that grew up saying “like” is hitting adulthood – and the workforce. As a result, it is now in the lexicon of investment bankers, doctors and even teachers, where it can sound especially jarring. “I’m sure I say, ‘like’ a lot,” says Liza Sutherland, 28, a sixth-grade humanities teacher in New York. “I don’t worry so much about how my students speak.”

Like a verbal virus, this usage is also increasingly spreading to other English-speaking countries. British and Canadian kids now grease their sentences with the word. Sali Tagliamonte, professor of linguistics at the University of Toronto who has researched the speech of the elderly in the United Kingdom, found that they, too, have a surprising fondness for “like.” “If I showed you a written document of the conversation, you would think they were young women in North America, not 78-year-old ladies from Scotland,” she says.

[…]

Linguists say “like” has a growing number of meanings. It can act as a “hedge,” to tell the listener that what is being said is an approximation or an exaggeration. (Example: “She has, like, a gazillion shoes.”) It can also be a “focuser,” to declare that the next bit of information is important. (“He is, like, so hot.”) One of its most ubiquitous uses is as a substitute for “said.” (“So my mom was like, ‘Do your homework.’ And then I was like, ‘I did it at school.'”)

[…]

Defenders of the practice argue that these usages are just a natural evolution of the English language. Indeed, even some linguists say the word can be downright useful. When dropped into the middle of a sentence, for example, it gives the speaker time to gather his thoughts so he doesn’t say the first (sometimes insipid) thing that comes to mind. Studies also show that people who have learned not to use filler words are interrupted more often, and tend to use simpler sentences.

“It really is a wonderful, useful word,” says Muffy E.A. Siegel, an associate professor of English at Temple University in Philadelphia, who has studied the use of “like.”

Personally, this drives me up the ever-loving wall — and, of course, it’s even worse when I catch myself doing it!

Aah, the times they are a-changin’.

iTunes: “Innocent Children” by Crack Machine from the album Freak Accident (1994, 3:56).